Haven't been posting too much lately. Have been too focused on longer posts and not enough on the many little thoughts kicking around in my head.
Sunshine
It's sunny again! Also, I get to walk to my placement for a couple weeks, which is amazing. I used to walk everywhere - for a while nearly an hour each way to-and-from work - and I loved it. It's been a nice change of pace to be getting some exercise in the sun, especially given the lack of exercise I've been getting otherwise.
Overdiagnoses
Medicine suffers from both a hive mentality as well as a lack of accountability for those who choose to follow their own path. Many conditions are overdiagnosed in the population, some due to widespread misdiagnoses by broad swaths of clinicians, others due to outliers whether ahead of the curve or behind it. Psychiatry is particularly susceptible to these problems, given the subjective nature of the field. I'd like to draw attention to one diagnosis that I've seen more than I would expect and in situations that don't seem to be applicable: Borderline Personality Traits.
True Borderline Personality Disorder is very disruptive and can be exceptionally hard to treat even with the emergence of DBT as an established, evidence-based therapy. Borderline Traits are, by definition, not significantly disruptive. There's room for this diagnosis, but often I've seen it employed when a patient is simply difficult. Borderline Personality Traits in isolation don't typically get treated, so perhaps it's not the most troubling diagnosis. Still, I find this trend a little too close to pathologizing traits which are, at the end of the day, not really a pathology, just something we as clinicians don't really like very much.
Hockey!
It's playoff time! The junior team I support is crushing it. The AHL team I'm supporting - bandwagon style mind you - is doing pretty well too. The NHL playoffs are actually interesting, with Chicago, LA, and Anaheim all bowing out in the first round! I only went 5/8 in my first round predictions though, so that's pretty bad... picked the Blackhawks and Panthers, which didn't work out. Also picked Anaheim and I really wish I hadn't, because I've always thought Nashville gets dismissed too easily. They're a really good team now that they have some real forwards in Forsberg, Johansen, and Neal. Looking forward now to the 2nd round match-up between Washington and Pittsburgh, not because of any Crosby vs Ovechkin bull, but because both teams are playing really, really well right now.
Naturopathy
The story of the Albertan parents who tried natural medicine for their child with meningitis is everywhere, so it's worth taking a second to touch on. There's a role for "natural" interventions, traditional medicine and alternative medicine. It can and frequently does co-exist with conventional medicine without much difficulty. However, it's hardly a harmonious co-existence. Fault for this can be placed on both sides, but the fault is far from symmetric. Conventional medicine is too dismissive of what benefits can be gained from non-conventional approaches. At a sheer minimum, placebos work and while there's moral hazard in actively participating in prescribing placebos, I don't think there's anything wrong from encouraging people to use their own placebos, if it seems to improve their quality of life. Reiki is high-quality bull-crap, but it's not going to hurt anyone so long as they still use conventional medicine when appropriate. Our resistance to alternative approaches means we're providing what is likely adequate, but suboptimal care.
The flip side is that non-traditional medicine overpromises. Most non-traditional interventions are not based in evidence and some can be quite harmful, but a balanced, honest discussion of pros and cons does not appear to be forthcoming. Worse, many practitioners seem unaware of the problems with the treatments they're offering (and getting paid for). That can lead to some serious issues, as the Alberta case demonstrates. These are fortunately not that common, but still far more common than they should be.
Point is, on both sides of the aisle, conventional medicine and non-conventional medicine, we could do a lot more to work together for the benefit of our shared patients. However, there should be no false equivalence - we need to change our attitudes, they need to change their actions.
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Thursday, 28 April 2016
Saturday, 9 January 2016
Hockey Post - World Cup Edition
Time for a quick hockey post on the upcoming World Cup - feel free to ignore the ramblings!
The World Cup is a bit of a money-grab, but it's international hockey, so I'll give it some interest. Team Canada has to name an initial 16-man roster, basically it's core players, before naming a full team. Here are my picks:
Goalie (2)
Carey Price, Braden Holtby
Price is the best goalie in the world, provided he's back to form when healthy. Holtby's been on a tear this year, but it's not a single-season performance - he's been solid for years now. I can't see them not naming two goalies in the first bit and while the other options (Luongo, Fleury) are fine, Holtby's performance has been slightly better, so he's earning an early spot.
Defensemen (5)
Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, PK Subban, Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Keith, Doughty, and Weber have plenty of international experience and are phenomenal all-around D-men, this year being no exception. PK Subban has been stellar for years and was under-appreciated in Sochi. He gets knocked for being a defensive liability, but it's an unfounded reputation these days - watch him play, look at traditional stats, or advanced stats, Subban's one of the best two-way defensemen in the league. His main weakness is undisciplined penalties, but he'll be on a tight leash on Team Canada and his upside it too great to pass up. At worst he becomes the 7th D-man. Vlasic's a role-player, to be used more in a shutdown role, but few players do it better and he's not a burden to the offense. There are some more talented players, some of whom I expect to make Team Canada, but in a short tournament reliability is key and no one's more consistent than Vlasic.
Forwards (9)
Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews, Jeff Carter, Corey Perry, Taylor Hall, Patrick Sharp, Brendan Gallagher
Benn and Seguin are self-explanatory. Right now they're the best two players in the NHL short of Patrick Kane and their underlying numbers are incredible. They can keep this pace up and they play so well together. Bergeron is such a unique player that he's worth it for the intangibles alone, but his offense (which was already very good) has hit a new level this year. Toews and Carter aren't having the best years, but they're defensively responsible with acceptable offensive contributions and strong international experience, so I give them the benefit of the doubt for a less-than-stellar season thus far. Perry's actually having a bad year, but luck's a big factor there - both he and Getzlaf are playing quite well on both ends, but aren't finding the back of the neck at the rate they normally do. Canada also lacks right wingers, so Perry kind of wins by default.
Hall was fringe candidate at the beginning of the year but he's putting together a strong season and has earned a spot. He'd be great in an offensively-oriented role. Sharp I would never have put on this list a few months ago, but he currently sits 5th highest scoring Canadian forwards (Benn, Seguin, Hall, and Bergeron are 1st through 4th). Sharp's mostly benefiting from riding shotgun with Benn and Seguin, but who cares? They'll be there anyway. Plus if those two need a different winger, he's got plenty of experience in a more defensive role with Toews. Gallagher is being mentioned more and more often by hockey pundits and I throw him on my short list with confidence. His advanced stats are amazing and he manages to be a pest without being undisciplined. He can single-handedly break a game open and everyone seems to get better playing with him. Like Perry, Gallagher's status as a right winger helps, as the competition for those spots is less (and may end up being filled by centers being shifted to the wing).
Obviously I've left some controversial omissions. No Crosby, no Stamkos, no Tavares, no Getzlaf. None are having great seasons. Getzlaf, like Perry, can blame bad luck - he's still decent on defense, so if the puck starts bouncing his way (as it should), he could easily earn a spot on the full roster. None of the others have the luxury of blaming chance, however. Crosby, Stamkos and Tavares have mediocre advanced stats to go along with their mediocre regular stats. These three are offensively-oriented centers who aren't generating that much offense. Everyone else on the list is either producing better offense or has a much more complete game (or both). Even for point-producing players, there are better options this year not yet on the shortlist in the form of Hoffman, Duchene, MacKinnon, or O'Reilly. Crosby, Stamkos and Tavares are big names to leave off the Team Canada roster, but tournaments aren't won by names, they're won by play - and they're just not playing well enough so far this year.
The World Cup is a bit of a money-grab, but it's international hockey, so I'll give it some interest. Team Canada has to name an initial 16-man roster, basically it's core players, before naming a full team. Here are my picks:
Goalie (2)
Carey Price, Braden Holtby
Price is the best goalie in the world, provided he's back to form when healthy. Holtby's been on a tear this year, but it's not a single-season performance - he's been solid for years now. I can't see them not naming two goalies in the first bit and while the other options (Luongo, Fleury) are fine, Holtby's performance has been slightly better, so he's earning an early spot.
Defensemen (5)
Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, PK Subban, Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Keith, Doughty, and Weber have plenty of international experience and are phenomenal all-around D-men, this year being no exception. PK Subban has been stellar for years and was under-appreciated in Sochi. He gets knocked for being a defensive liability, but it's an unfounded reputation these days - watch him play, look at traditional stats, or advanced stats, Subban's one of the best two-way defensemen in the league. His main weakness is undisciplined penalties, but he'll be on a tight leash on Team Canada and his upside it too great to pass up. At worst he becomes the 7th D-man. Vlasic's a role-player, to be used more in a shutdown role, but few players do it better and he's not a burden to the offense. There are some more talented players, some of whom I expect to make Team Canada, but in a short tournament reliability is key and no one's more consistent than Vlasic.
Forwards (9)
Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews, Jeff Carter, Corey Perry, Taylor Hall, Patrick Sharp, Brendan Gallagher
Benn and Seguin are self-explanatory. Right now they're the best two players in the NHL short of Patrick Kane and their underlying numbers are incredible. They can keep this pace up and they play so well together. Bergeron is such a unique player that he's worth it for the intangibles alone, but his offense (which was already very good) has hit a new level this year. Toews and Carter aren't having the best years, but they're defensively responsible with acceptable offensive contributions and strong international experience, so I give them the benefit of the doubt for a less-than-stellar season thus far. Perry's actually having a bad year, but luck's a big factor there - both he and Getzlaf are playing quite well on both ends, but aren't finding the back of the neck at the rate they normally do. Canada also lacks right wingers, so Perry kind of wins by default.
Hall was fringe candidate at the beginning of the year but he's putting together a strong season and has earned a spot. He'd be great in an offensively-oriented role. Sharp I would never have put on this list a few months ago, but he currently sits 5th highest scoring Canadian forwards (Benn, Seguin, Hall, and Bergeron are 1st through 4th). Sharp's mostly benefiting from riding shotgun with Benn and Seguin, but who cares? They'll be there anyway. Plus if those two need a different winger, he's got plenty of experience in a more defensive role with Toews. Gallagher is being mentioned more and more often by hockey pundits and I throw him on my short list with confidence. His advanced stats are amazing and he manages to be a pest without being undisciplined. He can single-handedly break a game open and everyone seems to get better playing with him. Like Perry, Gallagher's status as a right winger helps, as the competition for those spots is less (and may end up being filled by centers being shifted to the wing).
Obviously I've left some controversial omissions. No Crosby, no Stamkos, no Tavares, no Getzlaf. None are having great seasons. Getzlaf, like Perry, can blame bad luck - he's still decent on defense, so if the puck starts bouncing his way (as it should), he could easily earn a spot on the full roster. None of the others have the luxury of blaming chance, however. Crosby, Stamkos and Tavares have mediocre advanced stats to go along with their mediocre regular stats. These three are offensively-oriented centers who aren't generating that much offense. Everyone else on the list is either producing better offense or has a much more complete game (or both). Even for point-producing players, there are better options this year not yet on the shortlist in the form of Hoffman, Duchene, MacKinnon, or O'Reilly. Crosby, Stamkos and Tavares are big names to leave off the Team Canada roster, but tournaments aren't won by names, they're won by play - and they're just not playing well enough so far this year.
Tuesday, 29 September 2015
Quick Hockey Post!
I've got a real post coming soon, but with the NHL season starting very soon, I'll take the opportunity to make a completely-ignorable post on hockey!
I'll focus on two teams - Montreal (because I love the team) and Toronto (because I love to hate the team). These are two teams in very different situations. Montreal has been sniffing at the door of contending for a few years now, while Toronto has been solidly in the draft lottery. Likewise, Montreal is hoping to go deep into the playoffs, while Toronto is in the midst of a complete teardown.
Yet, they're both facing a very similar problem: they've signed too many mediocre players.
Toronto's angle here is clear - to fill their ranks with cheap, potentially disposable players who might be flipped for draft picks at the trade deadline (if they perform at or slightly above expectations) or signed to a longer-term deal (if they drastically exceed expectations). It's a good strategy that they've employed effectively in the past, pretty much the only thing that's kept their prospect pool half-decent despite years of fairly horrible draft decisions. Unfortunately, they've overdone it. Not counting Nathan Horton, who is permanently injured, they have 14 forwards signed - most to 1-year or otherwise expiring contracts - plus 8 D-men. Even if they send a few down to the AHL, it's a pretty crowded roster.
The main problem with this strategy is that there aren't many opportunities for development for those not already on NHL contracts. Kadri, JVR, Gardiner, & Rielly will benefit from some added responsibility this year, but players like Nylander and Connor Brown, who are sniffing at the edges of making the main squad are going to get shut out. Even an injury or two won't open a spot for them. Rushing players into the NHL is a mistake the Leafs have made far too often, but preventing young players from playing in the NHL when they're ready can be equally damaging. A few roster players are going to get marginalized as well. I like the signings of Boyes, Arcobello, Panik, and Matthias, as well as the trade for Grabner. These players could be part of the future of the Leafs, or just as easily could be flipped for asserts. Not all of them are likely to get much chance to shine in the current Leafs logjam.
Maybe the Leafs are still looking to move a player or two - Bozak and Lupul remain on the trade block. Maybe the plan is to bring these younger players up in more prominent roles after the trade deadline, when at least a few players are guaranteed to be shipped out. There might be a longer-term logic here, but in the short term, I just don't see it yet.
Montreal's approach is just nonsensical - for the past few years they've been good on depth but light on high-end talent outside of a few key players (Price, Subban, Pacioretty). For the most part, all they've done this past year is added more depth that they don't need. Semin is the one exception - he's a bit of a gamble, but he's a cheap way to potentially gain a solid top-6 forward, which Montreal desperately needs.
Montreal also has 14 forwards signed (though that might rise to 15 if Fleischmann gets the contract he appears to have earned) and while they only have 7 NHL D-men, those D-men are also fantastically expensive and sitting ahead of a much deeper bench of prospects. Plus, those players aren't likely to be traded at the deadline for draft picks - at best, they'll be traded for other players, similar to what happened with the acquisitions of Kassian and Smith-Pelly.
This simply means too many players fighting for too little opportunity. Just as with Toronto, some of these players really won't be given a chance. More importantly, Montreal's prospects are getting completely shut out. Hudon and Andrighetto are getting close. Tinordi has been in the AHL too long - if he's not playing with the big team or traded to another organization soon, he's at risk of becoming a wasted high-end prospect.
I'm still baffled about the acquisitions of Torrey Mitchell and Brian Flynn. Not that either player is bad - they're both capable bottom-6 players - but neither is likely to improve much moving forwards and there are another 6 equally capable players in the system that have higher potential that could be filling those roles. So what's their point?! If they make the team better now, it's a very marginal benefit, and they're not going to make Montreal better in the future.
The defense isn't any better - Petry, Emelin, and Gilbert are all fine bottom-4 defensemen, but so are Beaulieu and Pateryn, who are much cheaper with higher potential (aside from maybe Petry). And why'd they get rid of Mike Weaver? He was the perfect bottom-pairing D-man, cheap but reasonably effective, especially on the PK. Petry/Emelin/Gilbert/Beaulieu as the bottom-4 is probably better than say, Emelin/Beaulieu/Pateryn/Weaver would be this year, but not by all that much, and there's a lot more flexibility moving forward with the second group, not to mention a price difference of about $6 million. The Petry signing was, frankly, a mistake.
Anyway, it's been clear from this off-season that there's a lot more talent out there than there is money to pay them or positions on rosters to take them all. Good teams seem to have developed a strong, reliable core of players, then used free agents (including rentals), trades, and well-developed prospects to fill in the holes in their line-up on an as-needed basis. Chicago did that to win their cups. LA did that too. Boston did that. Anaheim's doing it now, as is Pittsburgh. It seems to be working for them. Toronto needs to develop the core, which the current strategy is standing in the way of. Montreal has the start of a core, but has now cut themselves off from filling in the holes effectively. This lack of flexibility could come back to bite both teams in the end.
I'll focus on two teams - Montreal (because I love the team) and Toronto (because I love to hate the team). These are two teams in very different situations. Montreal has been sniffing at the door of contending for a few years now, while Toronto has been solidly in the draft lottery. Likewise, Montreal is hoping to go deep into the playoffs, while Toronto is in the midst of a complete teardown.
Yet, they're both facing a very similar problem: they've signed too many mediocre players.
Toronto's angle here is clear - to fill their ranks with cheap, potentially disposable players who might be flipped for draft picks at the trade deadline (if they perform at or slightly above expectations) or signed to a longer-term deal (if they drastically exceed expectations). It's a good strategy that they've employed effectively in the past, pretty much the only thing that's kept their prospect pool half-decent despite years of fairly horrible draft decisions. Unfortunately, they've overdone it. Not counting Nathan Horton, who is permanently injured, they have 14 forwards signed - most to 1-year or otherwise expiring contracts - plus 8 D-men. Even if they send a few down to the AHL, it's a pretty crowded roster.
The main problem with this strategy is that there aren't many opportunities for development for those not already on NHL contracts. Kadri, JVR, Gardiner, & Rielly will benefit from some added responsibility this year, but players like Nylander and Connor Brown, who are sniffing at the edges of making the main squad are going to get shut out. Even an injury or two won't open a spot for them. Rushing players into the NHL is a mistake the Leafs have made far too often, but preventing young players from playing in the NHL when they're ready can be equally damaging. A few roster players are going to get marginalized as well. I like the signings of Boyes, Arcobello, Panik, and Matthias, as well as the trade for Grabner. These players could be part of the future of the Leafs, or just as easily could be flipped for asserts. Not all of them are likely to get much chance to shine in the current Leafs logjam.
Maybe the Leafs are still looking to move a player or two - Bozak and Lupul remain on the trade block. Maybe the plan is to bring these younger players up in more prominent roles after the trade deadline, when at least a few players are guaranteed to be shipped out. There might be a longer-term logic here, but in the short term, I just don't see it yet.
Montreal's approach is just nonsensical - for the past few years they've been good on depth but light on high-end talent outside of a few key players (Price, Subban, Pacioretty). For the most part, all they've done this past year is added more depth that they don't need. Semin is the one exception - he's a bit of a gamble, but he's a cheap way to potentially gain a solid top-6 forward, which Montreal desperately needs.
Montreal also has 14 forwards signed (though that might rise to 15 if Fleischmann gets the contract he appears to have earned) and while they only have 7 NHL D-men, those D-men are also fantastically expensive and sitting ahead of a much deeper bench of prospects. Plus, those players aren't likely to be traded at the deadline for draft picks - at best, they'll be traded for other players, similar to what happened with the acquisitions of Kassian and Smith-Pelly.
This simply means too many players fighting for too little opportunity. Just as with Toronto, some of these players really won't be given a chance. More importantly, Montreal's prospects are getting completely shut out. Hudon and Andrighetto are getting close. Tinordi has been in the AHL too long - if he's not playing with the big team or traded to another organization soon, he's at risk of becoming a wasted high-end prospect.
I'm still baffled about the acquisitions of Torrey Mitchell and Brian Flynn. Not that either player is bad - they're both capable bottom-6 players - but neither is likely to improve much moving forwards and there are another 6 equally capable players in the system that have higher potential that could be filling those roles. So what's their point?! If they make the team better now, it's a very marginal benefit, and they're not going to make Montreal better in the future.
The defense isn't any better - Petry, Emelin, and Gilbert are all fine bottom-4 defensemen, but so are Beaulieu and Pateryn, who are much cheaper with higher potential (aside from maybe Petry). And why'd they get rid of Mike Weaver? He was the perfect bottom-pairing D-man, cheap but reasonably effective, especially on the PK. Petry/Emelin/Gilbert/Beaulieu as the bottom-4 is probably better than say, Emelin/Beaulieu/Pateryn/Weaver would be this year, but not by all that much, and there's a lot more flexibility moving forward with the second group, not to mention a price difference of about $6 million. The Petry signing was, frankly, a mistake.
Anyway, it's been clear from this off-season that there's a lot more talent out there than there is money to pay them or positions on rosters to take them all. Good teams seem to have developed a strong, reliable core of players, then used free agents (including rentals), trades, and well-developed prospects to fill in the holes in their line-up on an as-needed basis. Chicago did that to win their cups. LA did that too. Boston did that. Anaheim's doing it now, as is Pittsburgh. It seems to be working for them. Toronto needs to develop the core, which the current strategy is standing in the way of. Montreal has the start of a core, but has now cut themselves off from filling in the holes effectively. This lack of flexibility could come back to bite both teams in the end.
Sunday, 19 July 2015
Hockey Post
Time for an obligatory hockey post! Yes, please ignore these, I write them so I don't pester my SO with my random hockey thoughts. It's good for our relationship.
NHL Playoffs
I did pretty well with my predictions this playoff season except for one, tiny misstep: in every round except the finals, I picked the Chicago Blackhawks to lose. First round I went 7 for 8 with the Chicago series being my sole error. Well that went well... Anyway, big congrats to Chicago and bigger congrats to Toews, Kane, Hossa, and Keith, who all pretty much sealed their inductions to the HHOF with that cup win (the other three-cup winners from Chicago - Sharp, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson - may deserve consideration as well depending on what else happens in their careers).
NHL Draft
Edmonton got the #1 pick... again... boo. In fairness, with the exception of Hall, none of their previous #1 picks really seem like true #1's, so I guess this is the hockey gods compensating them for that.
The draft choices pretty much went as expected. I was hoping Toronto would get Strome, mostly because he fits their needs better than anyone else who might have made it to #4, but Marner is a great consolation prize. Marner likely won't become the physical, two-way centreman that seems necessary to win a cup these days (Strome could), but he's got more potential than Strome and could easily become a premier winger. It's like getting Kessel minus some of the attitude problems. Coming out of London, Marner should have some defensive ability as well - the Knights seem to pound defensive responsibility into their players, even the offensively gifted ones.
Trades, Trades Everywhere!
Speaking of Kessel, decent return for him from Pittsburgh. Real win-win trade. Pittsburgh gets a real winger for their top-end centers, while Toronto gets about as good as they could get for Kessel, who they really wanted to get rid of anyway. I like the players Toronto got back, both of whom weren't living up to expectations in Pittsburgh but who have real potential moving forward. I'm glad they picked up Harrington. He'll never be a top-pair D-man, but he could easily be a solid second-pair player with the right motivation.
Boston got burned on Dougie Hamilton, shipping him off for a fairly poor return and seeing him ink a very fair deal with Calgary. Must have been something going on between the organization and Hamilton, or Boston made a very, very stupid deal. Good thing they made up for it with the Lucic trade, getting way more for him than they should have been able to get.
The goalie market got weird, with Lehner fetching far more than he should while Talbot got sold off for peanuts. Don't know what any team is thinking here.
Lastly, Chicago is hurting, bad. They moved out a lot of key players and got fairly mediocre returns on them. The Saad trade at least gave them some pieces, but what they got for Sharp was pretty poor. Even after a bad year, Sharp has a lot of upside and has won three Cups for a reason.
Lastly, Chicago is hurting, bad. They moved out a lot of key players and got fairly mediocre returns on them. The Saad trade at least gave them some pieces, but what they got for Sharp was pretty poor. Even after a bad year, Sharp has a lot of upside and has won three Cups for a reason.
Free Agent Frenzy
Toronto finally did well here, signing decent players for cheap to fill out their line-up. They'll still be terrible this season, but are at least setting themselves up to be less terrible in the future.
Montreal did poorly, signing yet another defenseman for too much money without really addressing their inadequate forward lines. Now they're cap constrained for absolutely now reason. Petry's not bad, just not worth that much money and not what they needed.
Colorado, Buffalo and Boston all overpaid for what look to be serviceable but mediocre forwards. They'll pay for it in the future.
Still a few worthwhile free agents out there, especially D-men who are sorely needed by most teams (Nashville & Calgary being the major exceptions).
How the Field Changes Next Year
It's obviously too soon to make any real predictions about how the NHL picture is going to look this coming year, but I'm going to do it anyway!
In the West, Dallas looks good to make the playoffs, likely in place of Vancouver, Calgary, or Winnipeg. LA should challenge as well, but they've got some deeper issues that have yet to be resolved.
In the East, Florida and Columbus may challenge, but Ottawa's the only real weak team I see for them to bump off.
Anyway, should be a good season!
Still a few worthwhile free agents out there, especially D-men who are sorely needed by most teams (Nashville & Calgary being the major exceptions).
How the Field Changes Next Year
It's obviously too soon to make any real predictions about how the NHL picture is going to look this coming year, but I'm going to do it anyway!
In the West, Dallas looks good to make the playoffs, likely in place of Vancouver, Calgary, or Winnipeg. LA should challenge as well, but they've got some deeper issues that have yet to be resolved.
In the East, Florida and Columbus may challenge, but Ottawa's the only real weak team I see for them to bump off.
Anyway, should be a good season!
Saturday, 25 April 2015
Edmonton, Goaltending and Devan Dubnyk
Obligatory, random hockey post now that the NHL playoffs have started, the NHL draft order is set, and the awards are slowly being announced.
Devan Dubnyk earned a nod for the Vezina trophy this year, after basically willing Minnesota into the playoffs. Doubt he'll win it (it's Price's trophy this year), but it's well-deserved recognition.
On the same note, the team that cut him loose for not being good enough, Edmonton, lucked into the first pick in next year's draft... again. Except this year, they don't just get a good player, they get an amazing one. And so, after yet another disappointing finish to the year, Edmonton's in a rebuild, trying to turn their wealth of talent into a successful team. What does this have to do with Dubnyk? Well, once again, the goaltenders in Edmonton are taking the heat and many are calling for better goaltenders to be brought in.
But that was the same story with Dubnyk and he did amazingly well... once he got outside of Edmonton. Scrivens, who is arguably Edmonton's best goaltender right now, did pretty well in LA. So maybe the problem isn't the goaltender, maybe it's the team around the goaltender, whether it's the other players or the coaching staff.
Edmonton lucked into yet another first overall pick, and they've already largely squandered three. To keep from doing that again, I really hope they take a good, hard look at what absolutely needs to get fixed, and what could simply use some improvement. When it comes to goaltending, I think it's the latter. There's no point bringing in another decent goalie, just to have him underperform because the defense around him is terrible, or because the system put in place by the coaches doesn't provide enough support. Edmonton needs better D-men - no point worrying about the goalie until that aspect is at least half-way fixed.
Devan Dubnyk earned a nod for the Vezina trophy this year, after basically willing Minnesota into the playoffs. Doubt he'll win it (it's Price's trophy this year), but it's well-deserved recognition.
On the same note, the team that cut him loose for not being good enough, Edmonton, lucked into the first pick in next year's draft... again. Except this year, they don't just get a good player, they get an amazing one. And so, after yet another disappointing finish to the year, Edmonton's in a rebuild, trying to turn their wealth of talent into a successful team. What does this have to do with Dubnyk? Well, once again, the goaltenders in Edmonton are taking the heat and many are calling for better goaltenders to be brought in.
But that was the same story with Dubnyk and he did amazingly well... once he got outside of Edmonton. Scrivens, who is arguably Edmonton's best goaltender right now, did pretty well in LA. So maybe the problem isn't the goaltender, maybe it's the team around the goaltender, whether it's the other players or the coaching staff.
Edmonton lucked into yet another first overall pick, and they've already largely squandered three. To keep from doing that again, I really hope they take a good, hard look at what absolutely needs to get fixed, and what could simply use some improvement. When it comes to goaltending, I think it's the latter. There's no point bringing in another decent goalie, just to have him underperform because the defense around him is terrible, or because the system put in place by the coaches doesn't provide enough support. Edmonton needs better D-men - no point worrying about the goalie until that aspect is at least half-way fixed.
Saturday, 28 February 2015
Egg On My Face (Hockey Edition)
So, after claiming this was buyer's market before the NHL trade deadline, the actual market is proving me very, very wrong.
Toronto only got a middling return on Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli, but other trades have generated fairly strong returns. Winnik, Jagr, Sekara, and Timonen fetched far higher of a price than I would have expected (especially Timonen). Only Bergernheim came in below price, and that was a fairly unique situation.
How do I explain my failure? Well, more buyers popped up than expected. LA, Minnesota and Winnipeg went from being tentative buyers to being all the way in. Pittsburgh and Chicago made moves to improve their post-season chances despite being in relatively poor position compared to previous years. I'm guessing other buyers have been shopping around but have other targets or weren't willing to pony up as much for the pieces that were already moved.
None of this changes that I was wrong, but it's been fun to see how I got things wrong.
Toronto only got a middling return on Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli, but other trades have generated fairly strong returns. Winnik, Jagr, Sekara, and Timonen fetched far higher of a price than I would have expected (especially Timonen). Only Bergernheim came in below price, and that was a fairly unique situation.
How do I explain my failure? Well, more buyers popped up than expected. LA, Minnesota and Winnipeg went from being tentative buyers to being all the way in. Pittsburgh and Chicago made moves to improve their post-season chances despite being in relatively poor position compared to previous years. I'm guessing other buyers have been shopping around but have other targets or weren't willing to pony up as much for the pieces that were already moved.
None of this changes that I was wrong, but it's been fun to see how I got things wrong.
Sunday, 15 February 2015
Pharmaceutical Marketing to Physicians
Ok, first things first.
I commented on how the NHL was a buyer's market, and lo-and-behold, the Leafs just shipped out two of the highest-value rentals for a relatively low return: a low-first rounder, essentially. Olli Jokinen was added simply to free up cap space in a way Toronto wouldn't mind, while the prospect, Brendan Leipsic, is far from certain to make NHL. He seems to have some offensive talent, but is an undersized third rounder. Leipsic isn't nothing, but it's a small consolation prize.
It's a deep draft, a low-first rounder definitely has value, but not that much more than a second rounder and certainly not more than two. Santorelli was worth a second round pick. Franson was worth a second round pick, if not more. If the trade the Leafs made was all they could get for those two, then it really is a buyer's market - or the Leafs management are idiots.
Alright, medicine-y stuff.
John Oliver's been on fire when tackling absurdities in the American social order and his most recent spills into Canadian society.
Pharmaceutical companies are some of the most profitable businesses in the world, certainly one of the most profitable in the health care system. Even in the US, where insurance companies are roundly vilified, they're not the ones with the substantial profit margins - pharmaceutical companies are. I doubt that's quite as true here in Canada, but nevertheless, drug companies make money - and they rely on physicians to do it.
The kind of practices in John Oliver's piece are present in Canada. Lunches and free samples in exchange for presentations by pharmaceutical companies are common. I've personally seen a physician try out a medication on the spot, in front of a pharmaceutical rep, and immediately become convinced of its efficacy (its effect was cosmetically apparent and, in fairness, it did appear to be working).
The justifications for these gifts are wide-ranging, but typically fall along the same lines: drugs help people, free samples are great for low-income patients, and while physicians may be compromised by their relationship with pharmaceutical companies, the individual physician giving these justifications isn't. The first two items in that list are true in many cases, the third... it might be true for a few physicians, but there's plenty of research that shows it's not true for most. That's why pharmaceutical companies spend so much marketing to physicians. It might not work on everyone, but it works on enough of them.
It's a practice that needs to stop.
I commented on how the NHL was a buyer's market, and lo-and-behold, the Leafs just shipped out two of the highest-value rentals for a relatively low return: a low-first rounder, essentially. Olli Jokinen was added simply to free up cap space in a way Toronto wouldn't mind, while the prospect, Brendan Leipsic, is far from certain to make NHL. He seems to have some offensive talent, but is an undersized third rounder. Leipsic isn't nothing, but it's a small consolation prize.
It's a deep draft, a low-first rounder definitely has value, but not that much more than a second rounder and certainly not more than two. Santorelli was worth a second round pick. Franson was worth a second round pick, if not more. If the trade the Leafs made was all they could get for those two, then it really is a buyer's market - or the Leafs management are idiots.
Alright, medicine-y stuff.
John Oliver's been on fire when tackling absurdities in the American social order and his most recent spills into Canadian society.
Pharmaceutical companies are some of the most profitable businesses in the world, certainly one of the most profitable in the health care system. Even in the US, where insurance companies are roundly vilified, they're not the ones with the substantial profit margins - pharmaceutical companies are. I doubt that's quite as true here in Canada, but nevertheless, drug companies make money - and they rely on physicians to do it.
The kind of practices in John Oliver's piece are present in Canada. Lunches and free samples in exchange for presentations by pharmaceutical companies are common. I've personally seen a physician try out a medication on the spot, in front of a pharmaceutical rep, and immediately become convinced of its efficacy (its effect was cosmetically apparent and, in fairness, it did appear to be working).
The justifications for these gifts are wide-ranging, but typically fall along the same lines: drugs help people, free samples are great for low-income patients, and while physicians may be compromised by their relationship with pharmaceutical companies, the individual physician giving these justifications isn't. The first two items in that list are true in many cases, the third... it might be true for a few physicians, but there's plenty of research that shows it's not true for most. That's why pharmaceutical companies spend so much marketing to physicians. It might not work on everyone, but it works on enough of them.
It's a practice that needs to stop.
Friday, 13 February 2015
Hockey!
Trying to keep this blog mostly about health care and medical school, but hey, I'm Canadian, I have to talk about hockey sometimes!
The NHL's trade deadline is approaching with a lot of speculation and, aside from a blockbuster between Winnipeg and Buffalo, there hasn't been much movement. This year has been touted as a potentially active trade deadline as there are number of mid-to-high profile free agents coming up as well as more than a few teams trying to do a top-to-bottom rebuild. Buffalo, Carolina, Ottawa, Arizona, and Toronto are all doing an overhaul. Edmonton and New Jersey should be as well, though they seem less eager to make the necessary changes.
Yet, the fact that there's high interest in selling doesn't mean there's a high interest in buying to match. Some playoff teams are limited by the salary cap (Boston, Chicago). Several are in the midst of a rebuild and unwilling to give up anything major for a rental player or another team's rejects (Winnipeg, Calgary). A few teams are skeptical about their playoff chances with their current core and probably won't make any real sacrifice to go deeper in the postseason (Vancouver, San Jose).
Right now, I see Detroit, Montreal, Tampa, Nashville, and Anaheim as the major potential buyers, and none of them seem overly eager to spend much. They're all well set up for the next half-decade and they don't want to risk those bright futures. It's a buyers market.
For teams looking to unload assets, they may have to be prepared for a low return. Not a great position to be in for rebuilding teams.
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