Predicting Specialty Competitiveness

I like to think I have a pretty good handle on specialty competitiveness. I spend way too much time pouring over CaRMS stats and have used them to calculate a few of my own numbers on competitiveness each year. (Disclaimer - my preferred metric, 1st iteration match rate by preferred specialty to that discipline, has been produced by the CFMS as part of their fantastic annual Matchbook each year, so I'm not coming up with much that's original).

Anyway, while historical match rates in each specialty are interesting, what everyone cares about is predicting future match rates! "Is X specialty more competitive this year than in the past?"

Well, I'm going to put my knowledge to the test. Based on last year's match rate, historical trends, current job market, changes in lifestyle/income, and random rumors I've heard, here are my predictions for the competitiveness of the larger CaRMS first-entry specialties:

Anesthesiology
2015 Match Rate: 71%
Mediocre (but not terrible) job market with a good lifestyle and good income. Has been trending towards being more competitive. Hearing this is a uniquely competitive year.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 67%

Dermatology
2015 Match Rate: 51%
Good job market, good pay, great lifestyle. Been quite competitive recently, but no reason to think that'll change. No rumors to report.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 53%

Diagnostic Radiology
2015 Match Rate: 74%
Mediocre job market, declining lifestyle, great income (but declining fast in Ontario). Historically competitive but much less so in the past few years. 2015 might have been close to where Rads was 10 years ago, but it's a divergence from the recent trend. A regression to its typical low-80's rate would be expected and word is applications are down this year.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 82%

Emergency Medicine
2015 Match Rate: 56%
Great job market, good pay, lifestyle either horrible or great depending on your feelings about shift work. EM became more competitive recently, but even then, last year saw a fair-sized drop in the match rate. A small regression wouldn't be surprising, but interest is still high and somehow the field lost two spots in this year's match (?!).
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 56%

Family Medicine
2015 Match Rate: 96%
Great job market, low pay, moderate (but flexible) lifestyle. Interest in FM has been steadily growing and I hear this year is no exception, but it's also a widely-accepted back-up specialty, so more interest doesn't necessarily translate into a lower match rate. People backing up might just lose out. It's also a huge field, so the match rate can't drop by much without a massive swell of interest.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 95%

General Surgery
2015 Match Rate: 85%
Pretty poor job market, rough lifestyle, good pay. Interest in surgery overall is declining a bit. Haven't heard too much about this year's match.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 84%

Internal Medicine
2015 Match Rate: 95%
Variable lifestyle, income, and job market, depending on subspecialty. Seems to be losing interest from students, but it's still the second-largest specialty. Nothing in the rumor mill to report.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 95%

Neurology
2015 Match Rate: 79%
I probably know the least about Neuro's practice situation so take this one with a grain of salt. Widely variable match rate recently, but 2015 was oddly competitive. Expecting a regression.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 85%

Obstetrics & Gynecology
2015 Match Rate: 73%
Mediocre job market, reasonable pay, but rough lifestyle in many respects. Competitiveness has grown recently. Does the trend continue, plateau, or regress? Hard to say. My money's on plateau.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 75%

Ophthalmology
2015 Match Rate: 74%
Poor job market, but awesome lifestyle and incredibly high pay. Competitiveness jumps year-to-year, but the match rate is usually lower than 2015's 74%.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 68%

Orthopedic Surgery
2015 Match Rate: 90%
Terrible job market (in Canada at least), but plenty of demand for procedures. Pay's decent, lifestyle's typical for surgical specialties. It's declining in competitiveness for good reason, but surgical specialties still garner substantial interest.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 87%

Otolaryngology
2015 Match Rate: 62%
Bad job market, good pay, decent lifestyle for a surgical specialty. Bit of a uniquely competitive year in 2015, but I'm hearing that level of interest is holding up.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 63%

Pediatrics
2015 Match Rate: 80%
Alright job market, alright pay, alright hours. Really stable match rates, even for a large field. People either love it or hate it, so the interest stays pretty constant.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 79%

Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation
2015 Match Rate: 76%
Good job market, alright pay, good hours. Quickly becoming a recognized lifestyle specialty and not without cause. More interest in recent years has translated into a big jump in competitiveness of the specialty last year. No firm whispers to report, but it sounds like this is a sustainable change, rather than a blip.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 78%

Plastic Surgery
2015 Match Rate: 53%
Alright job market, for surgery at least (OR time still a bit of a problem). Decent lifestyle for a surgical specialty as well. Good pay. Has been consistently competitive, match rates <60% for the last 5 years. Don't expect that to change.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 55%

Psychiatry
2015 Match Rate: 88%
Great job market, good lifestyle, but low pay. Interest in the field has grown, but that growth has limits - many students rule out Psych early and definitively.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 88%

Urology
2015 Match Rate: 81%
Poor job market, but good pay, and on the better side of things lifestyle-wise for a surgical specialty. Was less competitive in 2015 than typical, expect slight regression.
Predicted 2016 Match Rate: 77%

I should probably define what I'll consider to be an accurate prediction. Since more competitive specialties also tend to be more variable, I'll count a "success" as being +/- 2% if my prediction is over 90%, +/- 3% if my prediction is between 75% and 90%, and +/- 4% if my prediction is below 75%. In any case, it's written down, we'll see how my predictions turn out!